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Targeting U.S. Technologies

Regional Collection Trends


South and Central Asia

Overview

The South and Central Asia region remained the fourth most prolific region for technology collection in FY06-FY07. "Commercial" collectors continued to dominate industry reports, consistent with the trend in other regions. Collectors sought "Information Systems" technology most frequently, followed by "Lasers and Optics," "Sensor Systems," and "Aeronautics" technology. Industry reporting of the primary Methods of Operation (MOs) also mirrored the hierarchy noted in the other regions, with "Attempted Acquisition of Technology" in the top position followed by "Request for Information" (RFI) and "Solicitation and Marketing of Services."

Collector Affiliations

From the 348 reports validated by DSS as having met the suspicious contact threshold, the most dramatic trend was the significant rise in the number of contacts emanating from "Commercial" affiliated entities. These entities accounted for 52 percent of the reported contacts, a change from 39 percent in FY04-FY05. "Individual" contacts, not otherwise associated with "Commercial" or "Government" entities, also rose to 25 percent, nearly doubling the amount of reports from FY04-FY05 and accounting for a quarter of overall contacts in FY06-FY07. "Government" and "Government Associated" entities dropped to 10 percent and 11 percent respectively over the same time. "Government Associated" affiliations were three times less active than the previous time period, a significant decrease from FY04-FY05. Analyst Comment: The increase of commercial and corresponding drop in government and government associated contacts mirrors a trend that DSS observed for FY06-FY07. This trend is likely attributable to the shift in the global market economy for third world countries and increased international access to the Internet. This access allows smaller commercial entities to enter the international technology acquisition arena on a larger scale and finally join in specific modernization efforts. (Confidence Level: Moderate)

Affiliations

Methods of Operation

DSS analysis noted a parallel between the rising status of "Commercial" entities as the most active collector affiliations, and the concomitant emergence of the "Attempted Acquisition of Controlled Technology" technique as the most common MO of choice. While "Government Affiliated" collector entities most commonly employ "RFI" as a means to acquire information, "Commercial" collectors tend to prefer attempts designed to actually acquire the technology itself, purportedly to further their own business interests. As a result, in FY06-FY07, the rise of "Attempted Acquisition of Controlled Technologies" over the "RFI" method was a complete reversal of MOs from FY04-FY05. The third most prolific MO, "Solicitation and Marketing of Service" also rose slightly, but paled in comparison to the "Attempted Acquisition of Controlled Technology" MO. Analyst Comment: The changes in MO that industry reported in FY06-FY07 reflect the difference between government entities seeking technology for R&D purposes and commercial entities seeking technologies for sales. As the commercial entities continue to fulfill local technology contracts, the push to acquire controlled technologies will likely grow more aggressive. (Confidence Level: Moderate)

Methods of Operation

Targeted Technologies

Over the last four years, suspicious targeting emanating from South and Central Asia has remained relatively static with only nominal increases among the top four sought-after technologies. Regional entities continued to seek "Information Systems" technologies, specifically "Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance" (C4ISR) systems as the premier type of technology, accounting for almost a quarter of all reports. "Lasers and Optics," specifically laser target designators and laser range finders, remained in second place; however, "Lasers and Optics" was only seven percent below "Information Systems" technologies. "Sensors" technology remained in third place and was focused on Improvised Explosive Device (IED), motion sensors, and intrusion detection sensors. "Aeronautics" technology remained in fourth place with a focus on Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAVs) and associated systems. The increase in the top four technologies was a result of the virtual elimination of "Chemical," "Materials and Processing," and "Signature Control" technology. Analyst Comment: Entities from the South and Central Asia region continued their pursuit of economic and military modernization efforts to counter growing regional insurgencies. It is likely this targeting will drive these entities to seek state-of-the-art technologies (C4ISR, targeting, and detections systems) for their militaries and law enforcement organizations. (Confidence Level: Moderate)

Targeted Technologies

Analytical Forecast

The use of commercial collectors as the most frequently noted entities initiating contact is highly likely to continue as a trend into the next year. The entities using attempted acquisition of controlled technologies as their MO of choice will continue to grow as the regional commercial and military entities are exposed to new technologies as cooperation and contact with NATO partners expands. Information systems technology, specifically C4ISR systems, will likely remain the primary focus for technology collection, while lasers and optics technology acquisition attempts are also likely to grow concurrently with the attempts to acquire C4ISR systems. Collection against aeronautics technology, in the form of UAV systems, is likely to surpass collection of sensors technology, as NATO and Coalition forces continue to champion UAV systems as an integral component of C4ISR systems for its high-value, multi-tasking capabilities. (Confidence Level: Moderate)

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