UNCLASSIFIED

Targeting U.S. Technologies

Regional Collection Trends


Near East

Overview

With 453 reports, entities originating from the Near East region remained the second most prolific collectors of U.S. technology in FY06-FY07. "Government Associated" and "Commercial" collectors continued to dominate industry reports, followed closely by "Government" collection attempts. Entities primarily sought technologies that involved "Information Systems;" however, regional collectors also focused on "Aeronautics" and "Sensors" technology. The preferred collection style, or Methods of Operation (MO), for this region was "Request for Information" (RFI) distantly followed by "Attempted Acquisition of Controlled Technology" and "Solicitation and Marketing of Services" in second and third place, respectively. The collectors in this region represented a vast spectrum, ranging from students and business entrepreneurs to full-fledged government operators.

Collector Affiliations

As noted, contacts originated from an array of collectors in the Near East region. As was the case in FY04-FY05 reporting, DSS assessed "Government Associated" entities as being the most frequently noted collectors, representing 34 percent of the reports. However, potentially the most significant change noted in FY06-FY07 reporting was the five percent increase in affiliations assessed as emanating from "Commercial" entities, placing that affiliation in a virtual tie with the formerly dominant "Government Associated" category of collectors. Analyst Comment: The increase of commercial entities is likely due to collusion between commercial entities and government associated entities to ascertain leading-edge technology from the U.S. defense industry. It is highly likely commercial entities, such as universities, public agencies, and R&D centers, are affiliated with these government associated collectors. Consequently, it is also likely the government monitors all external communications through various government offices and such communications are transmitted only with official approval. (Confidence Level: Moderate)

Affiliations

Methods of Operation

Collection entities in this region continue to favor "RFI" as the most common collection technique of choice due to its low-risk, high-gain properties. Collectors also continued to use "Attempted Acquisition of Controlled Technology" in their efforts to exploit U.S. cleared defense contractors (CDCs) for desirable information. While "RFI" continues to be a popular method, other collectors attempt to acquire or divert U.S. controlled technology via a neutral country. Analyst Comment: It is highly likely Near East entities will continue to rely on nontraditional collectors and all available avenues of approach in their efforts to target U.S. technology. This type of direct targeting increases the number of targets of opportunity and is likely to increase the success rate for acquiring sensitive, classified, and export-controlled U.S. technology. (Confidence Level: High)

Methods of Operation

Targeted Technologies

Near East entities continued to steadily target "Information Systems." An increased interest in "Aeronautics" and "Sensors" technology was also noticed with a particular focus on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and associated systems. Since FY04-FY05, the number of UAVs fielded in the Iraq war increased over five-fold, with a concomitant increase in interest from Near East entities. As UAV technology evolves with ever-increasing efficiency and effectiveness, the desire to obtain these emerging technologies will also increase, as well as their associated bundled-weapons platforms. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have also generated an increased focus on the acquisition of cutting edge technologies related to "Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance" (C4ISR) programs, especially as they relate to war-fighting capabilities. Analyst Comment: As defense industry continues to make advances in the aeronautics field, it is highly likely that entities will pursue aggressive collection attempts in this area. Collectors are highly likely to target these aeronautical systems, especially UAVs, because UAVs have a substantial, continuing role in R&D. In addition, it is likely that media reports from the War on Terrorism highlight and increase focus on aeronautic system capabilities. Suspicious entities are also concerned with platform efficiency, extended flight duration, and R&D related C4ISR programs. (Confidence Level: High)

Targeted Technologies

Analytical Forecast

Entities originating from the Near East region will likely continue to collect on U.S. products in order to develop their own force multipliers as well as to improve existing technology. It is highly likely they will continue to use email RFIs in their attempt to acquire sensitive U.S. technology. Furthermore, channeling such requests through other nations to avoid export regulations is also likely to continue as a targeting method. As this region becomes more volatile, it is highly likely entities will continue to focus their collection on government related technologies such as information systems and aeronautics technology, especially in the areas of C4ISR systems and UAVs respectively. (Confidence Level: High)

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UNCLASSIFIED