UNCLASSIFIED

Targeting U.S. Technologies

Outlook


Forecast

As contractor personnel become more sensitized to the threat, it is highly likely the number of SCRs from CDCs, including cyber incidents, will increase proportionately. Similarly, as the defense industry engages emerging third world markets, the use of less-traditional collectors is also highly likely to increase, along with a concurrent increase in the number of suspicious contacts.

Information systems technology, particularly C4ISR systems, is highly likely to remain a priority technology target for the most prolific collectors. This also includes increased collection against modeling and simulation technology. Weapons technology developments, particularly missile and missile defense technologies, are likely to continue as collection priorities for entities for the Near East and Europe and Eurasian regions; while lasers and optics, materials and processing, and naval technologies are likely priority targets for the East Asia and the Pacific region. Aeronautics technologies, especially advanced UAV systems, are likely to continue as a major focus for all foreign collectors.

Suspicious entities are highly likely to increase their use of the Internet against defense contractors as a relatively low-risk, high-gain technique, offering illicit collectors the opportunity to acquire sensitive and proprietary information stored on U.S. computer networks. Internet targeting can also be used as a tool to identify targets of opportunity not readily apparent to potential collectors, allowing hostile elements to focus their collection efforts and design targeting plans employing the full range of collection techniques.

It is highly likely foreign commercial entities will increase their attempts to purchase CDC developed technologies, as well as pursue joint commercial endeavors in order to gain access to sensitive U.S. technology. These endeavors are likely to complicate the U.S. security and counterintelligence communities' ability to distinguish between legitimate global business practices and attempts at illegal acquisition of U.S. technologies. Furthermore, nearly all collectors will continue attempts to acquire any and all U.S. dual-use technologies regardless of their significance in order to advance their own technological bases with both commercial and military applications. This multi-dimensional threat environment will almost certainly require innovative and pro-active vigilance on the part of U.S. defense security personnel and cleared contractors. (Confidence Level: High)

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UNCLASSIFIED